Buyer’s Have the Upper Hand Right Now.
Buyers Have the Upper Hand
Right Now.
Here's What That Means.
July confirmed what the last few months have been building toward — this is a buyer's market in most segments of Waterloo Region. Sale-to-list ratios are hovering at or below 100%, inventory is sitting, days on market are ticking up. For buyers who have been waiting for a moment of leverage, that moment is now.
July is typically one of the quietest months of the year in real estate and 2026 is no different. Families are on vacation, attention is elsewhere and the market reflects that. What I'm watching closely heading into fall is whether this buyer-side leverage translates into meaningful price movement or whether sellers hold firm and simply wait for the fall market to bring buyers back.
What I'd tell buyers right now: the window you've been waiting for is open. Sale-to-list ratios at or below 100% across most of the region means the days of paying over asking on everything are behind us for now. You have room to negotiate, you have time to think and you have more choices than you did six months ago. Use that position wisely — get pre-approved, know your number and move with confidence when the right home comes up.
For sellers: the market still moves for well-priced, well-presented homes. What it doesn't reward right now is overpricing. If your home has been sitting, the price is the answer — not the marketing, not the staging, not the photos. The buyers are out there. They're just not paying more than a home is worth in this environment.
Waterloo Region — July 2026 Overview
The year-to-date picture tells a more stable story than the monthly numbers suggest. Through seven months of 2026, single family sales across Waterloo Region are up 0.4% vs the same period in 2025 — essentially flat. The market hasn't fallen apart. It has settled into a slower, more deliberate pace where buyers have the leverage and sellers need to price accurately to move.
The sale-to-list ratio of 100.3% regionally is the number to watch. That is the line between a seller's market and a buyer's market. Cambridge dipped below it at 99.9%. When homes are selling at or below asking, buyer psychology shifts — and that shift compounds over time.
Single Family — City Breakdown
| City | Avg Sale Price | YoY | Sales | YoY | DOM | Sale/List | Mths Supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterloo Region | $811,734 | ▼ 5.2% | 383 | ▼ 1.0% | 30 | 100.3% | 3.2 |
| Cambridge | $747,204 | ▼ 6.8% | 95 | ▼ 5.0% | 28 | 99.9% | 3.3 |
| Kitchener | $787,739 | ▼ 6.0% | 156 | ▼ 5.5% | 29 | 100.4% | 3.2 |
| Waterloo | $890,167 | ▼ 2.2% | 80 | ─ 0.0% | 30 | 101.3% | 2.8 |
Waterloo — The Quiet Outlier
While every other city posted year-over-year price declines, Waterloo's single family median sale price rose 1.4% YoY to $824,000 in July — the only positive price movement in the region. Average price at $890,167 was down 2.2% YoY but months supply tightened to just 2.8, the lowest of any city tracked. Sales held flat at 80 — exactly the same as July 2025. The Waterloo single family market is quietly outperforming the rest of the region on the metrics that matter. Sale-to-list of 101.3% confirms buyers are still competing for the right homes.
“Waterloo is the one market in the region where the numbers are telling a different story than the headlines. Median price up, months supply tightening, sale-to-list above 100%. That combination doesn't happen in a weak market.”
Cambridge — Dipping Below 100%
Cambridge posted a sale-to-list ratio of 99.9% in July — the first time this year Cambridge has dipped below 100%. That is a meaningful psychological and practical shift. It means the average Cambridge single family home sold for slightly less than asking, which signals that buyers are negotiating and sellers are accepting it.
Average price at $747,204 was down 6.8% YoY, though the median tells a more resilient story at $727,500 — up 1.6% YoY. Days on market held flat at 28 and months supply remained stable at 3.3. Cambridge isn't in freefall — it's in a buyer-favourable correction. For buyers who have been watching Cambridge, this is a materially better entry point than six or twelve months ago. New to Cambridge? Read the relocation guide →
Townhouses & Condos — A Clearer Warning Signal
The townhouse and condo numbers in July are the weakest data in this report. Kitchener condo and townhouse sales were down 29.6% year-over-year. Regionally, attached property sales fell 24.3% with new listings down 25% — meaning both supply and demand are contracting simultaneously. Months supply held at 5.1. If you own a condo or townhouse and are considering selling, this is not the moment to wait. The fall market — September and October — is likely your best window in 2026. Pricing needs to reflect current reality, not 2024 comparables.
| City | Avg Sale Price | YoY | Sales | YoY | DOM | Mths Supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterloo Region | $502,390 | ▼ 9.5% | 196 | ▼ 24.3% | 39 | 5.1 |
| Cambridge | $514,155 | ▼ 13.6% | 47 | ▼ 17.5% | 40 | 4.3 |
| Kitchener | $481,863 | ▼ 8.2% | 88 | ▼ 29.6% | 34 | 5.1 |
| Waterloo | $489,598 | ▼ 11.0% | 49 | ▼ 15.5% | 54 | 6.3 |
What This Means for Buyers & Sellers
For buyers: The leverage is real. Sale-to-list ratios at or below 100%, more inventory to choose from, sellers who are motivated and a fall market that may well bring more competition back. If you've been pre-approved and know your number, August and September are genuinely good months to buy. You are not competing against the same buyer pressure you'd face in a spring market. Use the Mortgage Calculator and Land Transfer Tax Calculator to get your full cost picture clear.
For sellers: The market rewards accuracy right now, not optimism. Homes priced correctly for current conditions are still selling. Homes priced based on where the market was 12 months ago are sitting. If your home hasn't moved in the first two to three weeks, the conversation needs to be about price. Read why overpricing costs sellers money →
For condo and townhouse owners: September and October are your window. The summer numbers in the attached segment are weak enough that waiting is a risk. Get a proper valuation now and plan your listing for early fall before year-end buyer fatigue sets in. Request a free home evaluation →
For context on how the year has evolved, see the June 2026 Market Report and the full 2026 market stats archive.
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